A NOT SO HAPPY NEW YEAR
THE SUB PRIME INDY 500
• President Bush Acts: Following Congressional rejection of a proposed $25 billion auto bail out President Bush announced a $13.4 billion bridge loan to the big three auto makers. The loan will drain the balance of funds from the congressionally approved first ½ of the $700 billion TARP fund.
• Agreement: The terms of the deal will start the auto companies on a race to restructure within the next 101 days, by a March 31 deadline, to prove their viability. The terms are broadly generous requiring the companies to negotiate concessions from workers, suppliers, dealers, banks and bondholders that will allow them to satisfy a mushy “viability” touchstone, that is, to show that they are taking steps to become “viable”. The Obama administration will be left to apply the test and play a large role in determining the future of the U.S. auto industry.
• Contentions: Already, there are grumblings from some in congress and the United Auto Workers about the concessions that workers should be asked to accept or are willing to accept, respectively.
• What if? If the companies fail to demonstrate that they are becoming “viable” by March 31, they must return the bridge loan funds and won’t qualify for an additional $4 billion in funding. Notwithstanding, the rescue is just the first tranche in federal assistance to the auto companies, some or all of which, may yet end up in bankruptcy.
• Start you engines: The race to find linchpins to viability is on but 101 days is a very short horizon for implementing major initiatives.
• Complications: Another... Read More »
