THE SUB-PRIME SOAP OPERA
BAIL-OUT-OLOGY
1. We are in a recession: Economists have finally figured out what every common person has known, that times are bad. Economically speaking, the U.S. economy has been in a recession since December 2007 they now report. Some other dour third quarter or later months economic indicators reported are:
a. Employment: In November alone 500,000 people were laid off from jobs. This was the steepest one month drop since 1974. In total, this year 1.9 million workers have been laid off this year. Job loses are happening around the world. In China the decline in availability of city jobs has begun a wave of reverse migration to rural areas and raising concerns about social unrest.
b. Manufacturing: U.S. manufacturing activity declined to a 26 year low.
c. Commodity prices: Mirroring the worldwide manufacturing slowdown, commodity prices for zinc, copper and lead have seen the bigger declines than in 1929.
d. Evidence of continued risk aversion: A measure of continued risk aversion is found in the widening gap or spread between the so called risk free or benchmark Treasury debt yields and those on debts of others. Even 10 year municipal bonds are yielding 4% or more than 1% over the 10 year Treasury obligation. Thus, the cost of borrowing by local governments, companies and others is increased creating a drag on the economy. Recently, the NY Port Authority received on bids when it offered $300 million in taxable 10 ... Read More »
